Charles Gaba's blog

Almost exactly a year ago I began my 2025 ACA Open Enrollment Period guide with the following words:

This is the best OEP ever for the ACA for several reasons:

  • The expanded/enhanced premium subsidies first introduced in 2021 via the American Rescue Plan, which make premiums more affordable for those who already qualified while expanding eligibility to millions who weren't previously eligible, are continuing through the end of 2025 via the Inflation Reduction Act;
  • A dozen states are either launching, continuing or expanding their own state-based subsidy programs to make ACA plans even more affordable for their enrollees;
  • 100,000 or more DACA recipients are finally eligible to enroll in ACA exchange plans & receive financial assistance!

What a difference a year can make.

USE THE DROPDOWN MENU ABOVE TO PICK A STATE.

9/29/25: Welcome Paul Krugman subscribers! I greatly appreciate the shoutout by him but should add the following clarification:

Regarding the chart below which he reposted comparing the original ACA subsidy scale to the current version: You probably think that if the enhanced subsidies expire it will revert back to the original version, which would be bad enough. In fact, however, the Trump Regime has also made THAT version even worse, like so:

I should also note that I've started cross-posting key entries at Substack as well.

Back in September I ran an analysis of the ~24 million Americans enrolled in ACA exchange healthcare coverage to try and get a better idea of the partisan impact of the expiration of the enhanced tax credits.

While it was already common knowledge that red states have significantly more ACA enrollees than blue ones (mainly because 9 of the 10 states still refusing to expand Medicaid under the ACA are red ones), I wanted to take a more granular look, so I broke enrollment out at the Congressional District level instead, and determined that while there are definitely more people in red districts who were about to be hit with massive net premium hikes, it wasn't a massive gap...it was around 20% higher in districts won by Republicans than by Democrats, which is significant but not jaw-dropping.

Monday, January 12th, 4:45am, via Jordain Carney of Politico:

[GOP Sen. Bernie Moreno of Ohio] said his goal is to get roughly 35 of the Senate’s 53 GOP senators to support an eventual deal — not just a handful joining Democrats on a “defection vote” — and that he’s keeping the White House and Senate leaders closely apprised of the discussions.

...His involvement is also a sign that a new generation of bipartisan dealmakers might be starting to emerge after some of the Senate’s old hands headed for the exits in recent cycles. Moreno is now in close touch with not only Collins and Shaheen but other Senate pragmatists such as Tim Kaine (D-Va.), Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska) and Angus King (I-Maine).

...The Senate group’s proposed extension would include new restrictions including a $5 a month minimum premium payment and an income cap set at 700 percent of the federal poverty level. In the second year, the proposal would also give enrollees to take their subsidy as cash in pre-funded health savings accounts — an arrangement favored by Trump.

via Covered California's Open Enrollment Dashboard, as of January 10th:

  • New enrollments: 175,457
  • Active renewals: 513,023
  • Passive Autorenewals: 1,221,996
  • Total: 1,910,476

As of the same point last year (actually 1 day more; the data from last year is as of 1/11/25), Covered CA was reporting:

  • New enrollments: 253,725
  • Active renewals: 423,230
  • Passive/Autorenewals: 1,225,611
  • Total: 1,902,566

Now that we're past the deadline for January coverage, I can start including auto-renewals as well. Overall...

The Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS) just published the second official 2026 Open Enrollment Period snapshot report:

The Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS) reports that 22.8 million consumers have signed up for 2026 individual market health insurance coverage through the Marketplaces since the start of the 2026 Marketplace Open Enrollment Period (OEP) on November 1, 2025. This includes 15.6 million Marketplace plan selections in the 30 states using the HealthCare.gov platform for the 2026 plan year and 7.2 million plan selections in the 20 states and the District of Columbia with state-based Exchanges (SBEs) that are using their own eligibility and enrollment platforms.

Total nationwide plan selections include 2.8 million consumers who are new to the Marketplaces for 2026, and 20.0 million consumers who had active 2025 coverage and selected a plan for 2026 coverage or were automatically re-enrolled.

via MNsure, Minnesota's ACA exchange:

ST. PAUL, Minn. — Minnesotans have four days left to sign up for health insurance through MNsure for the rest of the calendar year. The final deadline to enroll is 11:59 p.m. on Thursday, January 15, for coverage that starts February 1, 2026. After January 15, most Minnesotans will need a major life change, such as moving, getting married, or having a baby, to enroll in health insurance through MNsure—which makes this deadline especially critical.

“Enrollment advice and financial help for Minnesota health care plans are available through the MNsure website,” said MNsure CEO Libby Caulum. “Minnesotans have a variety of plan options to choose from and can shop with confidence on the state’s official health insurance marketplace.”

Yesterday, the U.S. House of Representatives finally voted on a clean, 3-year extension of the enhanced ACA tax credits which had been in place for the prior five years, and which over 22 million Americans (myself included) were relying on to keep their health insurance premiums at affordable levels until they expired at the end of December 2025.

In the end, 17 House Republicans voted with all 213 House Democrats to extend the improved tax credit formula through the end of 2028. Thirteen of the seventeen GOP "Yea" votes represent swing districts (the remaining four were Maria Elvira Salazar in FL-27, Andrew Garbarino of NY-02, David Joyce of OH-14 and Monica DeLa Cruz of TX-15).

Washington HealthPlan Finder

via the Washington HealthBenefit Exchange:

Apply by Jan. 15 for health and dental insurance with state and federal savings for those who qualify

OLYMPIA, Wash. – Amid federal uncertainty, including the loss of enhanced premium tax credits (ePTCs), more than 278,000 Washingtonians have signed up for health and dental insurance for 2026 through Washington Healthplanfinder. One week remains for Washington residents to visit wahealthplanfinder.org or work with a trusted resource in their community to find out what health and dental insurance options are available for this new year. The deadline for this year’s open enrollment is Jan. 15, for coverage that starts on Feb. 1.

As expected, just moments ago the House of Representatives voted to extend the enhanced ACA tax credits for another 3 years, through the end of 2028, with no strings attached...with a whopping 17 House Republicans crossing over to vote for it.

This is actually slightly higher than my prediction yesterday that up to 16 total House Republicans would vote for it, I should note!

I'm going to assume it will end up narrowly passing the House; it would be pretty stupid for those four to sign the discharge petition without actually voting for the bill, and Republicans are currently down 2 members anyway with Marjorie Taylor Greene (GA) having resigned and Doug LaMalfa (CA) dying yesterday morning.

My guess is that up to a dozen of the other vulnerable GOP House members will also vote for the bill once it breaks a simple majority, but we'll see.

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