Charles Gaba's blog

Almost exactly a year ago I began my 2025 ACA Open Enrollment Period guide with the following words:

This is the best OEP ever for the ACA for several reasons:

  • The expanded/enhanced premium subsidies first introduced in 2021 via the American Rescue Plan, which make premiums more affordable for those who already qualified while expanding eligibility to millions who weren't previously eligible, are continuing through the end of 2025 via the Inflation Reduction Act;
  • A dozen states are either launching, continuing or expanding their own state-based subsidy programs to make ACA plans even more affordable for their enrollees;
  • 100,000 or more DACA recipients are finally eligible to enroll in ACA exchange plans & receive financial assistance!

What a difference a year can make.

USE THE DROPDOWN MENU ABOVE TO PICK A STATE.

9/29/25: Welcome Paul Krugman subscribers! I greatly appreciate the shoutout by him but should add the following clarification:

Regarding the chart below which he reposted comparing the original ACA subsidy scale to the current version: You probably think that if the enhanced subsidies expire it will revert back to the original version, which would be bad enough. In fact, however, the Trump Regime has also made THAT version even worse, like so:

I should also note that I've started cross-posting key entries at Substack as well.

 

Yesterday morning on CNN's "State of the Union," host Kasie Hunt talked to Oklahoma GOP Sen. James Lankford about the enhanced ACA tax credits which are currently scheduled to expire exactly 10 days from now.

This gets into the weeds a bit, so I'm breaking it into two separate posts; I'll be publishing the second part tomorrow.

The crux of the CNN appearance was Langford claiming that "Obamacare" (the Affordable Care Act...guys, he's been out of office for nearly 9 years now, let it go willya?) "caused prices to skyrocket in the marketplace" and that the expiration of the enhanced tax credits put into place in 2021 during the COVID pandemic is simply "exposing the real issues" within the ACA.

First of all, let's clear up this "they were only put in place due to the COVID pandemic" talking point which Republicans keep tossing around (the implication being that since the COVID pandemic is over, the subsidy upgrade should end as well).

Get it straight: Eliminating the 400% FPL subsidy cliff and beefing up the tax credit formula is something which Democrats always intended to do when they had the ability to do so.

via MNsure, Minnesota's ACA exchange:

MNsure open enrollment ends January 15

ST. PAUL, Minn. — Minnesotans have until January 15, 2026, to sign up for 2026 health insurance through MNsure. While the first enrollment deadline has passed, consumers can still go to the MNsure website to find a plan and sign up for coverage that starts February 1. The final deadline to enroll is 11:59 p.m. on Wednesday, January 15.

Financial help for Minnesota health care plans is still available only through MNsure. MNsure-certified brokers and navigators provide free expert help and enrollment advice—from trusted professionals who won’t try to upsell consumers.

“MNsure offers a variety of plans that meet Minnesotans’ needs and budgets,” said MNsure CEO Libby Caulum. “As the official health insurance marketplace, MNsure is the best place to shop for a plan you can trust, without fear of scams or false promises.”

via the Massachusetts Health Connector:

BOSTON—The Massachusetts Health Connector’s New Year deadline is looming, with residents without health coverage having until Dec. 23 to enroll in affordable, comprehensive health insurance that starts Jan. 1, 2026.

Most people who apply for health insurance through the Health Connector get help paying for their coverage through the ConnectorCare program. The Health Connector is the state’s health insurance Marketplace, the only place where residents can get help paying for their coverage, and where residents can be assured they are getting a comprehensive health plan they can count on and avoid the junk plans that lurk on search engines.

Magazine advertisement for the 1946 film Deadline at Dawn Date	March 1946 publication Source	Photoplay for March 1946, page 9 Author	RKO Pictures

Since we're past the initial December 15th Open Enrollment Deadline for coverage starting January 1st in most states and since there's been several enrollment deadline extensions announced by various states (including two more today), I figured this would be a good time to post a completely updated rundown of just what the remaining deadlines are for every state as well as what your options are if you miss them.

This is basically a standalone version of the first section of my annual Open Enrollment Guide; I hope that separating it out will make it less overwhelming.

IDAHO: December 15th was the only deadline for 2026 coverage. If you missed it, you're pretty much out of luck unless you qualify for one of the following exceptions:

via Covered California's Open Enrollment Dashboard, as of December 13th:

  • New enrollments: 103,627
  • Active renewals: 431,722
  • Passive Autorenewals: 1,407,579
  • Total: 1,942,928

As I've noted before: While I include the passive/auto-renewal number for completeness sake, that number won't really be relevant until after the deadline for January 1st coverage passes (which was December 15th in most states, but not until 12/23 in MA & 12/31 in CA, IL, MD, NV, NJ, NM, PA, RI & VA).

More important for the moment is the total number of active enrollments, which includes both new enrollees as well as current enrollees who log into their account and actively select a plan for 2026.

In California, those come to 535,349 combined. This also means that only 23% of current enrollees had actively re-enrolled as of 12/13.

As of the same point last year (actually 1 day more; the data from last year is as of 12/14), Covered CA was reporting:

Three important news items out of Connecticut today:

First, via Access Health CT:

HARTFORD, Conn. (December 16, 2025) — Access Health CT (AHCT), Connecticut’s official health insurance marketplace, experienced intermittent website outages on Monday, December 15, 2025 that impacted customers who wanted to enroll by that date to have coverage starting January 1, 2026. The website has been fully restored and is now available for eligible Connecticut residents to enroll in coverage.

via CoverME, Maine's ACA exchange:

The Maine Department of Health and Human Services (DHHS) Office of the Health Insurance Marketplace (OHIM) will release biweekly updates on plan selections through CoverME.gov, Maine’s Health Insurance Marketplace.  

Plan selections provide a snapshot of activity by new and returning consumers who have selected a plan for 2026. “Plan selections” become “enrollments” once consumers have paid their first monthly premium to begin coverage. These numbers are subject to change as consumers may modify or cancel plans after their initial selection.   

The deadline to select a plan for coverage beginning January 1, 2026 is December 15, 2025. Consumers who select a plan between December 16, 2025 and January 15, 2026 will have coverage beginning February 1, 2026. 

Me, 11 days ago:

...Assuming new enrollment continues to only lag slightly behind last year, there could be up to ~4 million new enrollees for 2026, which means total plan selections could potentially hit ~25 million...which would actually break last year's record of 24.3 million.

If this happens (or anything close to it), you can expect the following scenario to play out:

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