Charles Gaba's blog

But actually, he thought as he re-adjusted the Ministry of Plenty’s figures, it was not even forgery. It was merely the substitution of one piece of nonsense for another. Most of the material that you were dealing with had no connexion with anything in the real world, not even the kind of connexion that is contained in a direct lie. Statistics were just as much a fantasy in their original version as in their rectified version. A great deal of the time you were expected to make them up out of your head.

For example, the Ministry of Plenty’s forecast had estimated the output of boots for the quarter at 145 million pairs. The actual output was given as sixty-two millions. Winston, however, in rewriting the forecast, marked the figure down to fifty-seven millions, so as to allow for the usual claim that the quota had been overfulfilled. In any case, sixty-two millions was no nearer the truth than fifty-seven millions, or than 145 millions.

A week or so ago the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS) issued a semi-final 2025 ACA Open Enrollment Period report, which noted that 23.6 million Americans had selected 2025 plan year coverage via the various ACA marketplaces since November 1st...as of either January 4th or December 28th, depending on the state.

Those thru dates are important, of course, because the 2025 OEP was still ongoing in every state except Idaho at the time...and in fact it's still going on in several of them, including CA, DC, MA, NJ, NY, RI & VA. In some of these states the final deadline is still up to 2 weeks away.

 The 2025 ACA Open Enrollment Period (OEP) officially begins on November 1st.

This is the best OEP ever for the ACA for several reasons:

  • A dozen states are either launching, continuing or expanding their own state-based subsidy programs to make ACA plans even more affordable for their enrollees;

*Note: There's still some uncertainty about this, as 19 Republican Attorneys General have filed a lawsuit to block this, and oral arguments were heard just a week or so ago, so it's conceivable that an injunction will be placed before November 1st.

Update 12/09/24: As expected, a federal court has shot down the eligibility of DACA recipients to enroll in ACA exchange coverage in the 19 states involved in the lawsuit. In theory the roughly 2/3 of DACA recipients living in the other 31 states +DC should still be eligible.

Update 12/19/24: OK, never mind: Another federal court has put a stay on the DACA enrollment injunction, so for the moment DACA recipients can enroll in every state.

Update 12/23/24: Rhode Island has extended their 2025 Open Enrollment period all the way out through the end of February due to the nasty security breach of RIBridges, their social services IT system. Anyone who enrolls thru 2/28/25 will have their coverage made retroactive to January 1st.

And remember, millions of people will be eligible for zero premium comprehensive major medical policies.

If you've never enrolled in an ACA healthcare policy before, or if you looked into it a few years back but weren't impressed, please give it another shot now. Thanks to these major improvements it's a whole different ballgame.

Here's some important things to know when you #GetCovered for 2025:

IMPORTANT: See caveats below regarding the impact of Medicaid Unwinding & other enrollment changes over time on these estimates.

12/12/24: Note: ACA Medicaid Expansion data has been updated by 3 months for most states, from March 2024 to June 2024.

With another GOP trifecta and Trump's Project 2025 promising draconian cuts to federal spending, there's a very good chance that the Affordable Care Act is, once again, on the chopping block.

I have no idea what's going to happen to either it, Medicaid, Medicare, the Children's Health Insurance Program (CHIP), the VA or the Indian Health Service, but whatever it is probably isn't gonna be pretty.

With that in mind, I figured it would be helpful to take stock of just how many Americans are actually receiving healthcare coverage through the ACA...and while I've crunched this number several times before, I'm taking it several steps further this time and breaking it out not only by state, but by Congressional District (CD).

I recently published an ambitious spreadsheet which attempted to compile a comprehensive & up to date tally of total ACA healthcare coverage (including both exchange-based Qualified Health Plans (QHPs), Basic Health Plans (BHPs) and ACA Medicaid expansion enrollment), broken out by not just state but by Congressional District.

Doing this on a state-by-state level is easy. Doing so by Congressional District (CD) gets a lot trickier.

As I noted in my prior article, for state level ACA enrollment I'm using official data reports from the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS) for the "baseline" numbers, supplemented by more recent state-level data from some of the state-based ACA exchanges & state Health & Human Services departments.

There's only a single CD in Alaska, Delaware, Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota, Vermont and Wyoming, as well as one non-voting House member in the District of Columbia, so no further work is needed for those. For the other 43 states, however, breaking the enrollment data out by CD gets trickier.

It was in early 2021 that Congressional Democrats passed & President Biden signed the American Rescue Plan Act (ARPA), which among other things dramatically expanded & enhanced the original premium subsidy formula of the Affordable Care Act, finally bringing the financial aid sliding income scale up to the level it should have been in the first place over a decade earlier.

In addition to beefing up the subsidies along the entire 100 - 400% Federal Poverty Level (FPL) income scale, the ARPA also eliminated the much-maligned "Subsidy Cliff" at 400% FPL, wherein a household earning even $1 more than that had all premium subsidies cut off immediately, requiring middle-class families to pay full price for individual market health insurance policies.

Here's what the original ACA premium subsidy formula looked like compared to the current, enhanced subsidy formula:

via Covered California (by email; no link yet):

SACRAMENTO, Calif. — Covered California has announced a special-enrollment period for residents of Los Angeles and Ventura counties, where a state of emergency has been declared due to the Palisades and Eaton Fires that have destroyed over 12,000 homes and displaced hundreds of thousands of Californians.

“These fires have caused unprecedented destruction and have upended the lives of so many living in Southern California,” said Covered California Executive Director Jessica Altman. “Everyone who is uninsured and has been affected by these fires, directly or indirectly, will have an extended opportunity to obtain health insurance through Covered California or Medi-Cal over the next two months.”

Californians have 60 days from the date that the state of emergency was declared in their county to sign up for coverage, so this special-enrollment period will last until March 8.

Other resources made available to Californians affected by the fires can be found here:

Many voices including mine have been warning of this for months, so it shouldn't come as a surprise to anyone, but here it is regardless: Last week Politico got ahold of a "menu" of draconian cuts to a wide variety of federal programs, mostly regarding healthcare policy, which House Republicans plan on implementing with their new trifecta:

The early list of potential spending offsets obtained by POLITICO includes changes to Medicare and ending Biden administration climate programs, along with slashing welfare and “reimagining” the Affordable Care Act.

The biggest program on the hit list, however, is Medicaid, which would make up nearly half of the $5 TRILLION in budget cuts Republicans have in mind in order to pay for...massive tax cuts for corporations & the wealthy, of course.

It was in early 2021 that Congressional Democrats passed & President Biden signed the American Rescue Plan Act (ARPA), which among other things dramatically expanded & enhanced the original premium subsidy formula of the Affordable Care Act, finally bringing the financial aid sliding income scale up to the level it should have been in the first place over a decade earlier.

In addition to beefing up the subsidies along the entire 100 - 400% Federal Poverty Level (FPL) income scale, the ARPA also eliminated the much-maligned "Subsidy Cliff" at 400% FPL, wherein a household earning even $1 more than that had all premium subsidies cut off immediately, requiring middle-class families to pay full price for individual market health insurance policies.

Here's what the original ACA premium subsidy formula looked like compared to the current, enhanced subsidy formula:

via the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS):

October 2024 Key Findings

Medicaid and CHIP Enrollment

  • In October 2024, 79.3 million individuals were enrolled in Medicaid and CHIP.
    • 72.1 million individuals were enrolled in Medicaid, and 7.2 million individuals were enrolled in CHIP.
    • 41.7 million adults were enrolled in Medicaid, and there were 37.6 million Medicaid child and CHIP enrollees.

Medicaid and CHIP Applications Received

  • In October 2024, Medicaid, CHIP, Human Services agencies, and State-based Marketplaces received 2.6 million applications, or 2 percent more applications, as compared to September 2024.
  • The number of applications received has increased by 20 percent since October 2023 and increased by 66 percent since October 2022.

Total Medicaid/CHIP enrollment in October 2024 still dropped very slightly from September...by just 55,000 people.

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