Charles Gaba's blog

The go-to journalist in Connecticut for all things Obamacare-related is Arielle Levin Becker. Judging from her feed this AM, it sounds like she's livetweeting the monthly AccessHealthCT board meeting. Here's her key points:

CT exchange enrollment down about 9.2 percent from end of open enrollment. Also about 2% shift from subsidized to unsubsidized.

— Arielle Levin Becker (@ariellelb) April 21, 2016

CT exchange getting about 3,100 enrollments through special enrollment periods each month.

— Arielle Levin Becker (@ariellelb) April 21, 2016

Out of 116k members at end of open enrollment, 18.8k canceled covg or had it terminated; 7,983 people have signed up.

— Arielle Levin Becker (@ariellelb) April 21, 2016

During the official Open Enrollment Period, MNsure enrolled 85,390 Minnesotans in Qualified Health Plans. Unlike most of the state exchanges (and HC.gov itself), MNsure has been dutifully continuing to update their data every month or so during the off season, providing an interesting glimpse into how the Special Enrollment Period (SEP) is going:

  • 11/01/15 - 1/31/16: 85,390 QHPs Cumulative since 11/01/15 (or 928/day); 33,333 MNcare; 73,173 Medicaid
  • 2/01/16 - 2/14/16: 85,690 QHPs Cumulative since 11/01/15 (+300, or 21/day); 39,887 MNcare; 90,234 Medicaid
  • 2/15/16 - 3/06/16: 86,856 QHPs Cumulative since 11/01/15 (+1,166 QHPs, or 55/day); 45,621 MNcare; 111,449 Medicaid

,,,and in the latest update:

  • 3/07/16 - 4/17/16: 90,696 QHPs Cumulative since 11/01/15 (+3,840, or 91/day); 55,357 MNcare; 156,983 Medicaid

Didja notice that? While the private QHP enrollment rate obviously dropped off tremendously after open enrollment closed (duh!), the SEP enrollment rate has dramatically increased since then, from 21/day in early February, to 55/day in late Feb/early March, to 91 per day over the past month. While it's still just 10% of the Open Enrollment rate, over 4x as many people are signing up for QHPs via MNsure now as were at the start of the off season.

UnitedHealthcare is operating on the ACA exchanges in 34 states this year. I assumed that they'd announce which states they were staying in or dropping out of all at once during yesterday's quarterly earnings conference call, but apparently not. Instead, the status of each state has been dribbling out one by one over the past week or two.

Zachery Tracer is doing a great job of keeping track over at Bloomberg News.

As of this writing, Tracer has the drop-out list up to 18 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 states, including:

I haven't posted anything about Louisiana's ACA Medicaid expansion since back in January, just before newly-elected Democratic Governor John Bel Edwards took office. At the time, it looked like the program wouldn't actually kick off until July, and would enroll perhaps 300,000 people.

Today brings a status update: It looks like they're gonna ramp things up a month earlier, and around 75K more Louisianans are eligible than previously thought:

La. Governor Announces Medicaid Expansion Will Begin June 1, Save State $677M Over 5 Years

About 375,000 people in Louisiana are expected to enroll in the program for low-income residents. At the same time, officials in Arkansas continue wrestling with the governor's plan to end the political impasse over expansion.

To be clear: UnitedHealthcare dropping out of almost all of the 34 states they're operating in this year is not good news by any means. So far they've only confirmed sticking around Virginia and Nevada, while confirming that they won't be available in 13 others so far: AR, CT, GA, LA, MI, MO, NE, NC, OK, PA, TN, TX, WA.

However, it's also worth keeping in mind that in many of these states, United has a pretty small presence to begin with. Case in point: Connecticut:

LT. GOVERNOR WYMAN, ACCESS HEALTH CT CEO WADLEIGH STATEMENTS ON UNITED HEALTHCARE ANNOUNCEMENT

(HARTFORD, CT) – Lieutenant Governor Nancy Wyman, Chair of the Access Health CT (AHCT) Board, and AHCT CEO Jim Wadleigh today issued the following statements on the announcement that in 2017, United Healthcare is pulling out of most state healthcare marketplaces:

For nearly 7 years now (starting well before the Affordable Care Act was even voted on, much less passed or signed into law), the Republican Party has been promising their own comprehensive plan to replace it.

Huffington Post healthcare reporter Jeffrey Young has spent that time documenting (nearly) every instance of the GOP promising that they'll be coming out with their own full-blown "Obamacare Replacement Plan" annnnnnnny day nowHis Storify documentation now stands at 98 entries by my count. when he hits 100, he wins a free set of steak knives.

Here's the latest, courtesy of Steve Benen of The MaddowBlog:

One of the best running jokes in American politics is the one about Republicans releasing their own alternative to the Affordable Care Act. Any day now, GOP leaders have been saying for many years, they’re going to have a plan that rivals “Obamacare,” and it’s going to be awesome.

As I've stated many times in the past, I'm in favor of ultimately phasing out most of the private, for-profit insurance industry. My timeline and specifics differ greatly from, say, Bernie Sanders's proposed single payer plan, and I think there's room for the private market for supplemental insurance, but I'm no fan of keeping things as they are. While not every carrier is guilty of doing so, the health insurance industry as a whole has repeatedly proven itself to have a hell of a lot of bad corporate citizens over the years, to put it mildly.

Having said that, there are some criticisms which aren't always warranted, and one of these just came up today in light of UnitedHealthcare's decision to pull out of the ACA exchanges in most of the 34 states they're currently operating in...or more specifically (since United wasn't even participating the first year), the losses sustained by many other carriers during the first 2 Open Enrollment Periods for 2014 and 2015.

UPDATE: Zachery Tracer of Bloomberg News and Phil Galetitz of Kaiser Health News have confirmed that UnitedHealthcare will stay in Virginia and Nevada next year, but they won't stay around in Connecticut. More details as they come in....

Update 4:10pm: According to Zachery Tracer, UnitedHealthcare to pull out of Texas, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Tennessee and Missouri as well.

Update 7:05pm: OK, Tracer has updated his list of the states United won't be in next year:

Over the past week or so, UnitedHealthcare started making good on their threat last fall to drop out of the ACA exchanges in at least some of the 33 states that they offer individual market policies in. On April 8th they said they were pulling up stakes in Arkansas and Georgia (although they're keeping a small presence in Atlanta via their experimental "Harken Health" division). Then, last Friday, they said they were dropping off the Michigan exchange as well...and just today, Adam Cancryn noted that they're pulling the plug on Oklahoma, while Zachary Tracer says they're pulling out of Louisiana. Ugh.

The previous entry was getting kind of long with all the updates, so I'm carrying it over to a new entry.

As you'll recall, until now I had data on "grandfathered" and "grandmothered" policy enrollment from 3 states: Alaska, Florida and Kentucky. However, even that limited data is kind of iffy, because most of it is from either 2014 or 2015, making it difficult to pin down the current numbers as of Spring 2016. Here's a summary of what I have so far:

Based on these numbers, I've extrapolated out to estimate perhaps 1.1 - 1.6 million grandmothered (transitional) enrollees and 800K - 1.4 million grandfathered enrollees nationally.

You'll notice that I left a blank line; that's because as always, Louise Norris has come through with some hard numbers out of The Big One: California:

@charles_gaba Got some more date from CA. It's as of 12/31/14, but they said the 12/31/15 report should be out very soon. CA has 2 reports..

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