IRA

Originally posted 12/28/24

Mississippi has around ~338,000 residents enrolled in ACA exchange plans, 98% of whom are currently subsidized. I estimate they also have another ~14,000 unsubsidized off-exchange enrollees.

Combined, that's 352,000 people, although assuming the national average 6.6% net enrollment attrition rate applies, current enrollment would be back down to more like 330,000 statewide.

Originally posted 1/08/25

The District of Columbia has around ~15,000 residents enrolled in ACA exchange plans. Unlike most states where nearly all ACA exchange enrollees are subsidized, in DC only around 28% are due to the District having an unusually high income eligibility threshold for Medicaid (210%).

DC also has a unique requirement that ACA individual market plans can only be sold on their ACA exchange; I'm assuming perhaps 1,000 off-exchange enrollees regardless but officially I believe this should be pretty much zilch. With net attrition since January, however, it looks like the grand total is actually a bit below 14,000 District-wide.

Originally posted 1/15/25

Montana has around ~77,000 residents enrolled in ACA exchange plans, 89% of whom are currently subsidized. I estimate they also have another ~8,400 unsubsidized off-exchange enrollees.

Combined, that's 85,000 people, although assuming the national average 6.6% net enrollment attrition rate applies, current enrollment would be back down to more like 80,000 statewide.

Originally posted 1/18/25

Missouri has around ~417,000 residents enrolled in ACA exchange plans, 94% of whom are currently subsidized. I estimate they also have another ~3,600 unsubsidized off-exchange enrollees.

Combined, that's ~420,000 people, although assuming the national average 6.6% net enrollment attrition rate applies, current enrollment would be back down to more like 392,000 statewide.

Originally posted 1/01/25

Louisiana has around ~293,000 residents enrolled in ACA exchange plans, 96% of whom are currently subsidized. I estimate they also have another ~13,000 unsubsidized off-exchange enrollees.

Combined, that's 306,000 people, although assuming the national average 6.6% net enrollment attrition rate applies, current enrollment would be back down to more like 286,000 statewide.

Originally posted 12/06/24

Maryland has around 247,000 residents enrolled in ACA exchange plans, 76% of whom are currently subsidized. I estimate they also have another ~73,000 unsubsidized off-exchange enrollees.

Combined, that's 320,000 people, although assuming the national average 6.6% net enrollment attrition rate applies, current enrollment would be back down to more like 300,000 statewide.

How did we get here?

Originally posted 12/13/24

Michigan has around 531,000 residents enrolled in ACA exchange plans, 91% of whom are currently subsidized. I estimate they also have another ~64,000 unsubsidized off-exchange enrollees.

Combined, that's 595,000 people, although assuming the national average 6.6% net enrollment attrition rate applies, current enrollment would be back down to more like 556,000 statewide.

How did we get here?

Originally posted 12/04/24

Massachusetts has around 390,000 residents enrolled in ACA exchange plans, 83% of whom are currently subsidized. I estimate they also have another ~27,000 unsubsidized off-exchange enrollees.

Combined, that's ~417,000 people, although assuming the national average 6.6% net enrollment attrition rate applies, current enrollment would be back down to perhaps ~400,000.

Originally posted 12/03/24

Minnesota has around 151,000 residents enrolled in ACA exchange plans, 61% of whom are currently subsidized. I estimate they also have another ~62,000 unsubsidized off-exchange enrollees.

Combined, that's ~213,000 people, although assuming the national average 6.6% net enrollment attrition rate applies, current enrollment would be back down to more like 200,000 statewide.

Originally posted 1/02/25

Kansas has around 200,000 residents enrolled in ACA exchange plans, 94% of whom are currently subsidized. I estimate they also have another ~6,000 unsubsidized off-exchange enrollees.

Combined, that's ~206,000 people, although assuming the national average 6.6% net enrollment attrition rate applies, current enrollment would be down to more like 192,000 statewide.