In yesterday's write-up about CMS posting the first official, state-by-state data breakout for the ongoing 2026 ACA Open Enrollment Period, I noted several possible reasons why so far enrollment is running a solid 11% ahead of the same point a year ago even with widespread knowledge of the enhanced federal tax credits expiring just 25 days from now:
Total 2025 enrollment was 13.4% higher than total 2024 enrollment; assuming a similar rate of net attrition over the course of the year, there should be around 13% more current enrollees who can potentially actively renew/re-enroll for 2026 to begin with. As it happens, re-enrollment is currently up around 14% over the same point a year ago.
There's been a MASSIVE amount of attention given to the ACA, the exchanges, Open Enrollment, etc etc this year due to the panicky headlines about the impending subsidy expiration and of course the 43-day long federal government shutdown which focused primarily on...the ACA, the exchanges, Open Enrollment and the impending subsidy expiration.
The Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS) reports that nearly 950,000 consumers who do not currently have health care coverage through plans in the individual market Marketplace have signed up for coverage in 2026, since the start of the Marketplace Open Enrollment Period (OEP) on November 1, 2025. Existing consumers are also returning to the Marketplace to actively renew their coverage, and anyone who does not actively renew will be automatically re-enrolled for 2026. Over 4.8 million existing consumers have already returned to the Marketplace to select a plan for 2026.
Definitions and details on the data in this report are included in the glossary.
As usual, I'll start out with the top line numbers, compared to the same point last year:
I don't know if this is new or not, but it turns out that Covered California--the largest state-based ACA exchange in the country--has an Open Enrollment Dashboard after all!
This means that in addition to two small states regularly reporting Open Enrollment data (Maine and New Mexico), the largest one is as well!
Here's what Covered CA is reporting as of November 29th:
New enrollments: 45,023
Active renewals: 365,879
Passive/Autorenewals: 1,412,526
Total: 1,823,428
As I've noted in both my Maine and New Mexico updates, while I include the passive/auto-renewal number for completeness sake, that number won't really be relevant until after the deadline for January 1st coverage passes (which is December 15th in most states, although not until 12/23 in MA & 12/31 in MD, NV, NJ, NM & RI).4,
While it appears that Congress will allow enhanced federal Premium Tax Credits to expire, New Mexico’s Health Care Affordability Fund (HCAF) will cover the loss of the enhanced premium tax credits for households with income under 400% of the Federal Poverty Level (or $128,600 for a family of four), providing up to $68 million in premium relief for working families who enroll in coverage through BeWell in 2026. Federal and state premium assistance will continue to reduce the impact of the rate increases.
The Maine Department of Health and Human Services (DHHS) Office of the Health Insurance Marketplace (OHIM) will release biweekly updates on plan selections through CoverME.gov, Maine’s Health Insurance Marketplace.
Plan selections provide a snapshot of activity by new and returning consumers who have selected a plan for 2026. “Plan selections” become “enrollments” once consumers have paid their first monthly premium to begin coverage. These numbers are subject to change as consumers may modify or cancel plans after their initial selection.
The deadline to select a plan for coverage beginning January 1, 2026 is December 15, 2025. Consumers who select a plan between December 16, 2025 and January 15, 2026 will have coverage beginning February 1, 2026.
New Mexico Open Enrollment 2026 - Enrollment Summary
Last Refreshed On: December 2, 2025
Officially, they're reporting 75,926 Qualified Health Plan (QHP) enrollments already, which is actually 8% higher than the 70,373 which they ended with during the 2025 Open Enrollment Period (OEP) last January.
HOWEVER...and this is a major caveat...that 75,926 includes all current enrollees being auto-renewed for 2026, which doesn't really count for my purposes. Most state exchanges used to hold off on lumping in the auto-renewals until after the initial December deadline, only reporting current enrollees who actively re-enroll along with new enrollees.
The Maine Department of Health and Human Services (DHHS) Office of the Health Insurance Marketplace (OHIM) will release biweekly updates on plan selections through CoverME.gov, Maine’s Health Insurance Marketplace.
Plan selections provide a snapshot of activity by new and returning consumers who have selected a plan for 2026. “Plan selections” become “enrollments” once consumers have paid their first monthly premium to begin coverage. These numbers are subject to change as consumers may modify or cancel plans after their initial selection.
The deadline to select a plan for coverage beginning January 1, 2026 is December 15, 2025. Consumers who select a plan between December 16, 2025 and January 15, 2026 will have coverage beginning February 1, 2026.
New Mexico Open Enrollment 2026 - Enrollment Summary
Last Refreshed On: November 12th 2025
Officially, they're reporting 70,485 Qualified Health Plan (QHP) enrollments already, which is actually slightly higher than the 70,373 which they ended with during the 2025 Open Enrollment Period (OEP) last January.
HOWEVER...and this is a major caveat...that 70,485 includes all current enrollees being auto-renewed for 2026, which doesn't really count for my purposes. Most state exchanges used to hold off on lumping in the auto-renewals until after the initial December deadline, only reporting current enrollees who actively re-enroll along with new enrollees.
On Monday I noted that around 20 state-based ACA exchange websites had launched 2026 Open Enrollment "window shopping," which allows residents to plug in their household information (zip code, ages, income, etc) and browse the various health insurance policies they have to choose from for coverage starting January 1st...as well as whatever federal (and state, in some cases) tax credits they'll be eligible for.
I've already noted that 17 states have launched window shopping for the 2026 ACA Open Enrollment Period (OEP), allowing residents of the following states to plug their household information into their states ACA exchange website to see just how much their net health insurance premiums are going to increase starting January 1st, 2026:
